<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<mods xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3">
    <titleInfo>
        <title>Causal Inference from Series of Events</title>
    </titleInfo>
    <abstract>Recent years have witnessed an increased interest,
            both in statistics and in the social sciences, in time
            dependent models as a vehicle for the causal interpretation
            of series of events. The Humean and empiricist tradition in
            the philosophy of science uses the constant temporal order
            of cause and effect as a decisive delineation of causal
            processes from mere coincidences. To mimic the philosophical
            distinction, series of events are modelled as dynamic
            stochastic processes and the precedence of cause over effect
            is expressed through conditional expectations given the
            history of the process and the history of the causes. A main
            technical tool in this development is the concept of
            conditional independence.    In this article we examine some
            difficulties in the application of the approach within
            empirical social research. Specifically, the role of
            probabilistic concepts of causality and of conditional
            independence, the nature of events that reasonalby qualify
            as causes or effects, and the time order used in empirical
            research are considered.</abstract>
    <name>
        <namePart>Pötter, Ulrich</namePart>
    </name>
    <name>
        <namePart>Blossfeld, H.-P.</namePart>
    </name>
    <location>
        <url>http://www.stat.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/papers/cause2.ps</url>
    </location>
    <originInfo>
        <dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2000-06-01</dateCreated>
    </originInfo>
    <physicalDescription>
        <internetMediaType>application/postscript</internetMediaType>
    </physicalDescription>
    <classification authority="IZSOZ">10105</classification>
    <classification authority="IZSOZ">10102</classification>
    <subject authority="IZSOZ">
        <topic>Analyse</topic>
    </subject>
    <subject authority="IZSOZ">
        <topic>Erklärung</topic>
    </subject>
    <subject authority="IZSOZ">
        <topic>Inferenz</topic>
    </subject>
    <subject authority="IZSOZ">
        <topic>Kausalität</topic>
    </subject>
    <subject authority="IZSOZ">
        <topic>Methodenforschung</topic>
    </subject>
    <subject authority="IZSOZ">
        <topic>Modellanalyse</topic>
    </subject>
    <subject authority="IZSOZ">
        <topic>Wissenschaftsgeschichte</topic>
    </subject>
</mods>