\HeaderA{HoltWinters}{Holt-Winters Filtering}{HoltWinters}
\keyword{ts}{HoltWinters}
\begin{Description}\relax
Computes Holt-Winters Filtering of a given time series.
Unknown parameters are determined by minimizing the squared
prediction error.
\end{Description}
\begin{Usage}
\begin{verbatim}
HoltWinters(x, alpha = NULL, beta = NULL, gamma = NULL,
            seasonal = c("additive", "multiplicative"),
            start.periods = 3, l.start = NULL, b.start = NULL,
            s.start = NULL,
            optim.start = c(alpha = 0.3, beta = 0.1, gamma = 0.1),
            optim.control = list())
\end{verbatim}
\end{Usage}
\begin{Arguments}
\begin{ldescription}
\item[\code{x}] An object of class \code{ts}
\item[\code{alpha}] \eqn{alpha}{} parameter of Holt-Winters Filter
\item[\code{beta}] \eqn{beta}{} parameter of Holt-Winters Filter. If set to 0,
the function will do exponential smoothing.
\item[\code{gamma}] \eqn{gamma}{} parameter used for the seasonal component.
If set to 0, an non-seasonal model is fitted.
\item[\code{seasonal}] Character string to select an \code{"additive"} 
(the default) or \code{"multiplicative"} seasonal model. The first
few characters are sufficient. (Only takes effect if 
\code{gamma} is non-zero).
\item[\code{start.periods}] Start periods used in the autodetection of start
values. Must be at least 3.
\item[\code{l.start}] Start value for level (a[0]).
\item[\code{b.start}] Start value for trend (b[0]).
\item[\code{s.start}] Vector of start values for the seasonal component
(\eqn{s_1[0]...s_p[0]}{s_1[0]...s_p[0]})
\item[\code{optim.start}] Vector with named components \code{alpha},
\code{beta}, and \code{gamma} containing the starting values for the
optimizer. Only the values needed must be specified.
\item[\code{optim.control}] Optional list with additional control parameters
passed to \code{optim}.
\end{ldescription}
\end{Arguments}
\begin{Details}\relax
The additive Holt-Winters prediction function (for time series with
period length p) is
\deqn{\hat Y[t+h] = a[t] + h b[t] + s[t + 1 + (h - 1) \bmod p],}{Yhat[t+h] = a[t] + h * b[t] + s[t + 1 + (h - 1) mod p],}
where \eqn{a[t]}{}, \eqn{b[t]}{} and \eqn{s[t]}{} are given by
\deqn{a[t] = \alpha (Y[t] - s[t-p])  + (1-\alpha) (a[t-1] + b[t-1])}{a[t] = \alpha (Y[t] - s[t-p])  + (1-\alpha) (a[t-1] + b[t-1])}
\deqn{b[t] = \beta (a[t] -a[t-1]) + (1-\beta)  b[t-1]}{b[t] = \beta (a[t] - a[t-1]) + (1-\beta) b[t-1]}
\deqn{s[t] = \gamma (Y[t] - a[t])   + (1-\gamma) s[t-p]}{s[t] = \gamma (Y[t] - a[t]) + (1-\gamma) s[t-p]}

The multiplicative Holt-Winters prediction function (for time series
with period length p) is
\deqn{\hat Y[t+h] = (a[t] + h b[t]) \times s[t + 1 + (h - 1) \bmod p].}{Yhat[t+h] = (a[t] + h * b[t]) * s[t + 1 + (h - 1) mod p],}
where \eqn{a[t]}{}, \eqn{b[t]}{} and \eqn{s[t]}{} are given by
\deqn{a[t] = \alpha (Y[t] / s[t-p])  + (1-\alpha) (a[t-1] + b[t-1])}{a[t] = \alpha (Y[t] / s[t-p])  + (1-\alpha) (a[t-1] + b[t-1])}
\deqn{b[t] = \beta (a[t] - a[t-1]) + (1-\beta) b[t-1]}{b[t] = \beta (a[t] - a[t-1]) + (1-\beta) b[t-1]}
\deqn{s[t] = \gamma (Y[t] / a[t])   + (1-\gamma) s[t-p]}{s[t] = \gamma  (Y[t] / a[t])  + (1-\gamma) s[t-p]}

The function tries to find the optimal values of \eqn{\alpha}{} and/or
\eqn{\beta}{} and/or \eqn{\gamma}{} by minimizing the squared
one-step prediction error if they are omitted.

For seasonal models, start values for \code{a}, \code{b} and \code{s} are detected by
performing a simple decomposition in trend and seasonal component using
moving averages (see function \code{decompose}) on the
\code{start.periods} first periods (a simple linear regression on the
trend component is used for starting level and trend.). For
level/trend-models (no seasonal component), start values for a and b
are x[2] and x[2] - x[1], respectively. For level-only models
(ordinary exponential smoothing), the start value for a is x[1].
\end{Details}
\begin{Value}
An object of class \code{"HoltWinters"}, a list with components:
\begin{ldescription}
\item[\code{fitted}] A multiple time series with one column for the
filtered series as well as for the level, trend and seasonal
components, estimated contemporaneously (that is at time t and not
at the end of the series).
\item[\code{x}] The original series
\item[\code{alpha}] alpha used for filtering
\item[\code{beta}] beta used for filtering
\item[\code{coefficients}] A vector with named components \code{a, b, s1, ..., sp}
containing the estimated values for the level, trend and seasonal
components
\item[\code{seasonal}] The specified \code{seasonal}-parameter
\item[\code{SSE}] The final sum of squared errors achieved in optimizing
\item[\code{call}] The call used
\end{ldescription}
\end{Value}
\begin{Author}\relax
David Meyer \email{David.Meyer@wu-wien.ac.at}
\end{Author}
\begin{References}\relax
C. C. Holt (1957)
Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted
moving averages,
ONR Research Memorandum, Carnigie Institute 52.

P. R. Winters (1960)
Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages,
\emph{Management Science} \bold{6}, 324--342.
\end{References}
\begin{SeeAlso}\relax
\code{\LinkA{predict.HoltWinters}{predict.HoltWinters}},\code{\LinkA{optim}{optim}}
\end{SeeAlso}
\begin{Examples}
\begin{ExampleCode}
## Seasonal Holt-Winters
(m <- HoltWinters(co2))
plot(m)
plot(fitted(m))

(m <- HoltWinters(AirPassengers, seasonal = "mult"))
plot(m)

## Non-Seasonal Holt-Winters
x <- uspop + rnorm(uspop, sd = 5)
m <- HoltWinters(x, gamma = 0)
plot(m)

## Exponential Smoothing
m2 <- HoltWinters(x, gamma = 0, beta = 0)
lines(fitted(m2)[,1], col = 3)
\end{ExampleCode}
\end{Examples}

